Disharmony between face and heart？ It is difficult for the EU to be ＂quite Ukrainian＂
The EU Spring Summit is scheduled to be held in Brussels from 21st to 22nd local time. This is also the first official summit of the EU this year.
According to the schedule announced by the European Union, the top topic of the summit is still to discuss how to continue to support Ukraine.
△ EU official website screenshot
However, considering the recent differences and contradictions within the EU, especially between key member countries such as France and Germany, there are still many unknowns about whether the 27 EU countries can achieve unity on the issue of "settling Ukraine".
△ European Policy Center official website screenshot
Is the "European Peace Fund" intended to ignite the fire?
Before the EU summit, the US-led "Ukrainian Defense Liaison Group" just held its 20th monthly meeting on 19th.
At the meeting, US Defense Secretary Austin promised that "the United States will not let Ukraine fail" and tried to convince allies that Ukraine has not "lost the United States". But at this moment, Biden’s government basically has no money to continue to aid Ukraine.
Austin did not explain how Washington will continue to support Kiev without additional funds.
△ Reuters report screenshot
Then, Sullivan, Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs, made a surprise visit to Ukraine on the 20th, and reassured Ukraine at a news conference held in Kiev that the United States would continue to provide necessary support, including weapons and equipment.
△ Screenshot of the US Political News website report (the picture on the left is Sullivan)
No matter how determined you are, the United States, which can only write empty promises by mouth, has changed from a "leading arch" to a "pure arch".
In contrast, Europe is quite concerned about supporting Ukraine.
The EU foreign ministers’ meeting held on 18th to prepare for the EU Spring Summit formally reached an agreement, agreeing to set up a Ukrainian Aid Fund (UAF) within the existing European Peace Fund (EPF) and allocate 5 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine this year.
This is the EU’s supplementary assistance to Ukraine as a whole, in addition to the bilateral military assistance provided to Ukraine by member States.
△ EU official website screenshot
But for this matter, EU countries have been arguing for months.
Let’s start with the European Peace Fund (EPF).
Since the EU treaty prohibits the use of regular budget to finance military-related operations, the Council of the European Union approved the establishment of EPF in March 2021, which is dedicated to preventing and controlling conflicts and promoting peace. The fund is not included in the EU budget, and is shared by EU member states in proportion to their respective economies.
According to the original plan, the total budget of the fund in 2021-2027 is 5 billion euros. However, since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out in February 2022, this money was not enough at once.
△ Screenshot of the "European Peace Fund" page in official website, EU
For this reason, in July last year, borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, proposed for the first time to set up a "Ukrainian Aid Fund" (UAF) with a total amount of 20 billion euros within the framework of EPF, and planned to help Ukraine with 5 billion euros every year in the next four years.
△ Reuters report screenshot
UAF is a huge cash return program, which is used to partially reimburse the cost of weapons provided by member States to Ukraine. However, the plan was once opposed by many member States such as Germany and France.
As the main promoter of European defense industry, France insists that UAF is only used to buy weapons made in Europe.
As the second largest aid to Ukraine after the United States, Germany insists that its bilateral aid funds to Ukraine be included in Germany’s contribution to UAF.
Hungary has always opposed the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and refused to approve the provision of military assistance to Ukraine through the European Peace Fund.
△ Screenshot of the US Political News website report
After months of quarreling, the parties finally reached a compromise.
In order to appease France, the newly established UAF will give priority to the purchase of weapons made in Europe, and can only be used to purchase weapons from third countries when the production capacity in Europe is exhausted.
In order to appease Germany, the final agreement stipulates that the value of bilateral assistance to Ukraine will be taken into account when calculating the financial contribution of member States to UAF.
△ "Deutsche Welle" website report screenshot
Hungary, on the other hand, agreed to take a "constructive abstention", just as it did when voting on the four-year financial aid plan of 50 billion euros for Ukraine at the special EU summit in early February, and Hungary did not participate in the final vote.
In this way, the final agreement will not be blocked and UAF will be established.
△ Screenshot of the US Political News website report
"If Berlin and Paris really want to support Ukraine … …”
After the agreement on the establishment of UAF was reached, the EU executives cheered.
In the words of borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the agreement "sends a clear message: we will make every effort to support Ukraine to win".
Belgian Foreign Minister Hajja Labib, who held the rotating presidency of the European Union in the first half of the year, also said that with this agreement, "we will provide Ukraine with enough weapons and equipment in a coordinated manner".
△ Reuters report screenshot
However, cakes are not painted.
On the one hand, from 5 billion euros in the past seven years to 5 billion euros a year now, the total financing of the "European Peace Fund" is getting bigger and bigger, and it is hard to say whether it can catch up with the "reimbursement requests" accumulated by member States.
On the other hand, whether this special fund has the ability to "provide Ukraine with a sufficient number of weapons and equipment" also needs to be questioned.
Last March, the European Union used the European Peace Fund, boasting that it would provide 1 million artillery shells to the Ukrainian army within one year. But by the end of the day, the EU had not even delivered half of the promised shells.
Some analysts pointed out that the so-called "European Peace Fund" has obviously deviated from the meaning of "peace". Moreover, this extra expenditure outside the EU budget will have a negative impact on the already weak EU economy, further aggravating the plight of people’s livelihood in Europe.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU and its member States have provided or promised to provide Ukraine with more than 138 billion euros of various kinds of assistance. Moreover, the EU has repeatedly stressed that it will continue to provide political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine as long as necessary.
△ EU official website screenshot
However, the EU economy is getting worse and worse in this geopolitical crisis deliberately provoked by the United States and the West.
According to the statistical monitoring report released by Eurostat on the 19th local time, although inflation has eased and the unemployment rate has declined, the industrial production in the EU continues to shrink, indicating that the EU economy is still in a weak state.
△ Eurostat official website screenshot
Germany, the EU’s largest economy with the greatest aid to Ukraine, is precisely the worst among the major EU countries.
Although German Defense Minister pistorius recently announced at the meeting of the "Ukrainian Defense Liaison Group" that he would provide Ukraine with a new sum of aid worth 500 million euros, the outside world is not sure about the stamina of Germany’s aid to Ukraine.
As for the recent "directional contradiction" between Germany and France on the issue of aiding Ukraine, it has made other EU countries nervous.
French President Macron, who is keen to talk about "European autonomy", has always been dismissive of Germany’s practice of only following the lead of the United States and NATO, and believes that Germany is "too timid" in supplying arms to Ukraine, especially the Taurus cruise missile; Germany, on the other hand, is deeply angry at Macron’s "self-styled" European leader.
△ Screenshot of the US Political News website report
Recently, while Macron frequently released the rhetoric of "sending troops", it also made a high-profile announcement to set up a "missile alliance" to help Ukraine acquire long-range strike weapons. This is considered by the outside world as putting pressure on Germany on the issue of the Taurus missile.
German Chancellor Angela Scholz thought that Macron’s move was nothing more than grandstanding, and satirized that the actual assistance provided by France to Ukraine was less than a fraction of the scale of German aid to Ukraine.
△ Screenshot of the US Political News website report
In this regard, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said in an interview with DPA a few days ago that Germany and France, as leaders of the European Union, should make joint efforts to promote the peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
He believes that both Germany and France have a long history of contacts with Russia and can and should play a role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.
"If Berlin and Paris really want to support Ukraine, then it is appropriate to try to find a solution to this conflict together."
△ DPA report screenshot
Source: Global Information Broadcasting "Global Deep Observation"
Planning Wang Jian
Reporter Yuan Yuanding
Editor Yang Nan
Signing and examining Wang Jian
Producer Guan Juanjuan