Soda soda-Soda soda fell by nearly 6% under the decline of downstream glass.
The stock index-PMI continues to decline, and weak economic expectations suppress the performance of the stock index.
The three major indexes opened lower and then oscillated lower, and the decline in the late session increased; At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.10%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.11%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 2.75%.
1. On Saturday, the domestic manufacturing PMI recorded 49.1, which was lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.4. The economic outlook is still weak and the market confidence is insufficient.
In February and August, the central bank kept interest rates stable and did not cut interest rates further. The current economic data is weak, especially the poor money supply and social financing, and the stock market lacks upward momentum.
3. At present, the expectation of recession is still there, and the risk of yen arbitrage in the market is increasing, and the uncertainty faced by the stock market is still there.
4. At present, global instability is increasing, and external disturbances have a great impact on the domestic stock market. If the external disturbances are weakened later, foreign capital is expected to enter the domestic market, but the current economic recovery is weak, so we should pay attention to whether the subsequent policies can drive the economic recovery.
Chen Chen
Precious metals-US PCE data remains high, precious metals are adjusted back.
1. The main force of Shanghai Gold fell by 0.56%. The main force of Shanghai Bank fell by 3.73%.
2. The US dollar index rose to around 101.6, and the yield of ten-year US debt rose to around 3.93%. Spot gold prices in the international market fell to around 2495, while spot silver fell to around 29.5.
1. The US released PCE inflation data on Friday night. The core PCE still recorded 2.6%, which was lower than the expected 2.7%, but it still had some resilience. After the data was released, the market expected the Fed to cut interest rates. At present, the probability of the Fed’s interest rate cut in September is only 67%, which suppressed the performance of precious metals.
2. At present, the geopolitical future is uncertain. Although Ukraine has invaded Russia, its purpose is still to seek negotiation opportunities. The Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have not been seen, and Iran has temporarily stayed put, and precious metals have been affected by it.
3. Precious metals are expected to continue the upward trend, and follow-up attention will be paid to the progress of geopolitical conflicts and market sentiment.
Chen Chen
Shanghai copper-lack of obvious driving force, waiting for the guidance of this week’s economic data.
1. On August 30th, Chile’s National Bureau of Statistics (INE) announced that Chile’s manufacturing output increased by 5.1% year-on-year in July. As the world’s largest copper producer, Chile’s copper production in July increased by about 2% year-on-year to 443,633 tons.
2. On September 2, the spot stock of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 262,000 tons, down 19,800 tons from the 26th; Shanghai’s inventory was 169,900 tons, down 16,400 tons from the 26th. Guangdong has a stock of 52,300 tons, down 0.31 million tons from the 26th. Domestic social stocks of electrolytic copper continued the trend of destocking, among which the contribution of Shanghai market mainly declined; The main reason is that the recent arrival of imported copper in the market is less, and it is subject to some smelters’ maintenance and production reduction. The arrival of domestic copper is also less, and the warehousing is limited. In addition, the market delivery has not dropped significantly, so the inventory is obviously going to the warehouse again.
Macroscopically, according to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 49.1% in August, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing boom declined slightly. On the supply side, the supply of major overseas mines has been interrupted continuously, and the processing fee of concentrate has been kept low. China smelters plan to reduce their output to cope with the low processing fee of concentrate, and the growth rate of smelting output has slowed down recently. On the demand side, consumption will enter the peak season. At present, the downstream consumption willingness is not strong, and domestic consumption is relatively weak, waiting for further consumption data guidance. In terms of inventory, LME inventory continued to accumulate last week, the global total inventory was still in a high position, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory continued the trend of destocking. Short-term Shanghai copper lacks obvious driving force, and copper prices may maintain range volatility. This week, we will focus on data such as non-farm employment, manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing index in the United States in August.
liu shuangshuang
Rubber-weather influence in producing area, supporting price
1. According to foreign news, the Indian Meteorological Bureau said last Saturday that the precipitation in September this year is expected to be higher than the average of previous years, and in August, the precipitation in the country has been higher than the average of previous years. The director of the Indian Meteorological Bureau, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, said at a virtual news conference that the country’s precipitation in September may exceed 109% of the 50-year average.
On the supply side, at present, the domestic and international production areas are advancing, and the unfavorable climate still causes some tapping to be affected. The precipitation in southern Thailand is on the high side, and floods have occurred in many places, disturbing the tapping work in some areas. The weather forecast shows that there is still strong rainfall in Thailand until September 10, and it is expected that the short-term tapping work will still be difficult to advance. In terms of inventory, the inventory of domestic bonded areas continued to slowly de-melt. On the demand side, semi-steel tire enterprises have maintained a stable operating rate at a high level under the strong overseas export demand, and all-steel tire enterprises have steadily turned around and improved their enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials. The peak season of "Golden September, Silver and Ten Seasons" is expected to approach, and tires will start to grow. Follow-up attention will be paid to the improvement of tire consumption. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate, paying attention to precipitation, raw material prices and domestic inventory in the main producing areas.
liu shuangshuang
Industrial silicon-the spot market atmosphere is acceptable, and the future price may continue to be deadlocked.
1. Today, the reference price of industrial silicon market is 11,805 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton higher than last statistical day.
2. 64,479 industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 78 lots from the previous trading day.
On the supply side, there are still a small number of enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan that have slightly reduced production in order to raise prices; On the demand side, the spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the overall output is slightly attenuated. Although there is partial maintenance, the impact is relatively limited, the cost support is expected to increase, and the downstream demand growth lacks strong stimulation. The downstream demand in silicone is poor, and enterprises still purchase on demand. The aluminum alloy industry has not changed the status quo.
In September, the fundamentals of industrial silicon improved slightly, and the marginal pressure of supply continued to slow down. However, the situation of excess polysilicon and inventory backlog still existed, and the terminal demand picked up in the peak season, but the pressure of upward transmission to industrial silicon was greater, and the price center of industrial silicon might rise slightly, but it was not driven continuously and the subsequent surge was weak.
liu shuangshuang
Lithium carbonate-the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and lithium carbonate may maintain the bottom shock.
1. As of September 2nd, the spot price index of lithium carbonate (MMLC index for short) was 73,974 yuan/ton; The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 75,500 yuan/ton; The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 71,500 yuan/ton.
In February and July, a total of 1,425 energy storage projects were added nationwide, with a total investment of over 70 billion yuan, including 148 industrial projects and 1,277 project projects. There are 26 energy storage system integration filing projects in China, with an annual production capacity of 129GWh; 8 lithium-ion battery manufacturing projects with an annual production capacity of 75.6Gh.
Fundamental logic: On the supply side, with the continuous production reduction of lithium carbonate production enterprises, the output of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the import volume from abroad is also declining, but it is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand; On the demand side, at present, in the period when downstream enterprises are actively stocking up, the demand for lithium carbonate has increased; On the inventory side, lithium carbonate inventory is still accumulating, but the rhythm of accumulation is slowing down. It is expected that lithium carbonate will remain at a low level in the short term, and follow-up attention will be paid to the supply side production reduction and the demand scheduling in September.
liu shuangshuang
Coking coal-the number of imported Mongolian coal ports has dropped seriously due to the weather.
1. The contract closing price of coking coal JM2501 today is 1327.5 yuan/ton, which is 3.14% lower than yesterday’s settlement price.
2. According to the latest data from the Russian Federal Statistical Office, in July 2024, the total coal production in Russia was 32 million tons, which was flat compared with last month and decreased by 5.6%. Among them, the output of coking coal was 8.7 million tons, down 2.25% from the previous month and up 6.1% year-on-year; The output of anthracite was 1.5 million tons, which was the same as that of last month, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.82%. The output of lignite was 6.6 million tons, up 3.13% from the previous month and 8.2% from the same period last year. The output of other bituminous coal was 15.2 million tons, which was the same as that of last month and decreased by 12.64% year-on-year. From January to July, the total coal production in Russia was 243 million tons, down 1.42% year-on-year.
3. On September 2, 2024, the raw coal gas (A6 S0.5 V34-35 G75 Q5000) of Huangling No.1 Mine in Yan ‘an City, Shaanxi Province was auctioned. The starting price was 810 yuan/ton, and the quantity was 40,000 tons. In the end, it was sold at 871-890 yuan/ton. In the previous period (August 26th, 2024), the starting price was 770 yuan/ton, the quantity was 40,000 tons, and the transaction was finally completed at 825-845 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of September, the monthly long-term price of coal mines in some regions began to negotiate. On September 2nd, the price of coking coal in Shaoyang market was lowered by 100 yuan/ton, and the price acceptance of main coking coals A7.0, S0.7, V24, G80-83, Y17-19 and MT7 included tax of 1740 yuan/ton. After the previous price reduction in the producing coal mine, the order situation of the mine side improved and the inventory was consumed. However, the actual understanding is more of an emotional boost, and from the actual demand of the downstream, coke enterprises still continue to replenish the library on demand. On the whole, today’s online auction sentiment has cooled down compared with last week, and it is running steadily. In terms of importing Mongolian coal, the number of customs clearance vehicles at the 288 port of Mongolian coal dropped seriously due to the weather over the weekend. According to the agency data, the number of customs clearance vehicles at Ganqi Maodu Port on the 31st is 491. Downstream, after seven rounds of price reduction, the profits of steel mills have recovered, but the output of molten iron is still at a low level, and the purchase volume has not been released.
liu shuangshuang
Coke-the foundation for stabilization and rebound is not firm, and the pattern of supply and demand has not changed yet.
1. The closing price of the main coke contract 2501 today is 1931.0 yuan/ton, which is 3.52% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day.
2. The reference transaction price of the spot wet quenching quasi-first-grade coke in the port is 1730 yuan/ton. () The inventory of coke is 780,000 tons, that of dongjiakou is 580,000 tons, and that of the two ports is 1.36 million tons.
3. As of the week of August 30th, the average daily output of coke in the coking plant with full samples was 1.107 million tons, down 25,000 tons from the previous week.
4. As of the week of August 30th, the profitability of 247 steel mills nationwide was 3.9%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous week. The average daily output of 247 steel mills in China was 2.209 million tons, down 36,000 tons from the previous week.
From the perspective of supply and demand, coke is still in the pattern of negative feedback in the industrial chain, and coke output and molten iron output continue to decline. With the increase of the number of lifting rounds, coke enterprises return to losses on average, the market’s expectation of future market decline narrows, and the supporting role of coke is enhanced. In the short term, the rebound of the disk last week was limited, and the coke has not completely stabilized yet. There is still time before the peak season, the resumption of hot metal production has not yet started, or there is room for repeated shocks. Coke runs weakly and steadily in the short term, and the market still has expectations for the future.
liu shuangshuang
Soda soda-Soda soda fell by nearly 6% under the decline of downstream glass.
1. As of August 29th, 2024, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by ammonia-alkali process in China was 153.37 yuan/ton, down by 25.68 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by combined alkali process in China (two tons) was 301.60 yuan/ton, down by 68 yuan/ton from the previous month.
2. As of August 29, 2024, the shipment of soda ash enterprises in China was 677,300 tons, an increase of 10.16% from the previous month; The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.57%, up 11.36 percentage points from the previous month.
3. Longzhong Information reported on August 29th that the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.79% this week and 82.67% last week, down 1.88 percentage points from the previous month.
4. By September 2, 2024, the total inventory of domestic soda manufacturers this week was 1,232,100 tons, up 13,300 tons from last Thursday, or 1.09%. Among them, light soda ash was 604,100 tons, an increase of 0.57 million tons from the previous month, and heavy soda ash was 628,000 tons, an increase of 0.76 million tons from the previous month.
Fundamental logic: Under the pressure of high supply, high inventory and low demand, the downstream glass of soda ash must complete a new round of capacity clearing in order to usher in a real rebound in prices. However, due to the small elasticity of glass supply, the time for clearing capacity is expected to be longer, so the price will fluctuate around the cost line for a long period of time, and it will take enough time to complete the clearing capacity.
At present, the inventory pressure of photovoltaic float is still relatively high, and soda ash pays close attention to the support and pressure conversion of the 1500 integer mark in the short term, and operates with the trend.
liu shuangshuang
Methanol-macro sentiment is still weak, and methanol falls with the trend.
1. In this cycle (20240824-20240830), the international methanol output (excluding China) is 978184 tons, which is 7980 tons lower than last week, and the capacity utilization rate of the unit is 72.52%, which is 0.59% lower. The main changes of international installations this week are as follows: one of Iran’s ZPC installations stopped, and Kimiya and Sabalan restarted after a short stop last weekend; Other areas fluctuated slightly within a narrow range.
2. In August, 2024, China imported 1,223,800 tons of methanol, a decrease of 66,400 tons or 5.15% compared with the previous month (1,290,200 tons according to customs data). In August 2024, China’s methanol export is estimated to be 25,000 tons, an increase of 9200 tons or 58.23% compared with the previous month (15,800 tons according to customs data).
Fundamentals: overseas methanol started to fall, and PMI data was released in China at the weekend, which was not as good as market expectations, and macro sentiment remained weak; Today, under the influence of macro-emotions, the price has basically dropped the increase of the previous days, paying attention to the supporting role of the 2400 integer mark; In the medium term, the demand side is expected to be in the peak season of Golden September, Silver and Ten Seasons+stocking in advance during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, etc. The fundamentals are constantly improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly.
liu shuangshuang
White sugar-the rebound of international raw sugar slowed down, while Zheng sugar fell slightly.
1. The closing price of SR2501 contract today is 5635 yuan/ton, which is 25 points lower than yesterday’s settlement price, or 0.44%.
2. According to the data of my agricultural products network, the price of the first-class white sugar factory goods or warehouses in Nanning on September 2, including tax, was 6220 yuan/ton, down by 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Compared with the SR2501 contract, the premium is 585 yuan/ton. The price of the first-class white sugar factory goods or warehouses in Liuzhou area including tax is 6210 yuan/ton, down by 20 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Dali, Yunnan offers 5960 yuan/ton, and Kunming offers 6000 yuan/ton, down by 30 yuan/ton from last Friday. In terms of ports, the prices of major ports are mixed today, with quotations ranging from 6350 to 6400 yuan/ton.
The October contract of ICE American raw sugar fell slightly overnight, down 0.4 cents/pound from the settlement price of the previous day, and closed at 19.44 cents/pound. After the sharp rebound of international raw sugar caused by the fire in the main producing areas of Brazil last week, the market worries were released and the strong rebound slowed down. Domestically, the quotations of the main producing areas and sugar groups in the spot market have been lowered, the market procurement is relatively cautious, and the focus of the market has shifted to new sugar. The production and sales data to be released in August is expected to have limited impact on the market. In August, the amount of imported sugar is expected to be large, and the low imported syrup and the expected high yield of domestic sugar make the pressure on Zheng sugar higher. However, the weather in Brazil’s main producing areas is expected to remain basically rainless in the next 1-2 weeks, which may lead to the downward adjustment of sugarcane yield and sugar production, and it is expected that the market will still be repeated in the short and medium term. Pay attention to the follow-up impact of Brazil sugarcane fire on output and market and the weather conditions in the producing areas.
Wang yinggui
Cotton-cotton shock adjustment, pay attention to downstream orders
1. According to the export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday, in the week of August 22nd, the annual export sales of cotton in the current US market increased by 135,200 bales, with 157,600 bales newly sold.
2. The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) announced that on August 31st, the estimated arrival of Indian cotton was 8,100 bales (170kg each), or 1,377 tons.
On the supply side, various cotton producing areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll-opening period, and new cotton may be listed in late September in advance, and the expectation of high yield in supply remains unchanged. On the demand side, the traditional textile peak season of "Golden September, Silver 10" is approaching, the goods delivery of textile enterprises has improved, and the inventory pressure of finished products has been reduced. Enterprises that stopped production in the early stage began to resume production one after another, and the operating rate of enterprises that reduced production also increased in a narrow range. However, the new orders received downstream of the industry are divided and the overall confidence is insufficient. Driven by the expectation of "Golden September, Silver and Ten", it may run strongly, paying attention to the order situation and the situation of American cotton.
Chen Chen
Live pigs-spot prices have stabilized and risen, mainly due to shocks.
1. On September 2nd, the average slaughter price of live pigs in Anhui was 20.37 yuan/kg, which was weaker than yesterday. The average price of live pigs in Zhejiang market is 20.92 yuan/kg, and the price is stable and weak compared with yesterday.
On the supply side, at the end of August, in order to complete the monthly slaughter plan, the breeding group accelerated the slaughter rhythm of pigs, and some large pigs that were pressed by retail investors in the early stage concentrated on slaughter, and the supply end increment increased significantly. On the demand side, the spot price stabilized and rose by overlapping the stocking in the opening season and the group market. Generally speaking, it is necessary to pay attention to the boost of consumption after the start of school, the change of the rhythm of farming and the price difference of standard fertilizer, and with the start of school, the demand may show signs of recovery.
Chen Chen
Soybean meal-soybean meal is maintained and sorted, waiting for the market to boost.
1. Spot situation: Today, the contract of soybean meal 2501 received 3031 yuan/ton, up by 8 yuan/ton, or 0.26%.
(1) The temperature in the soybean producing area dropped obviously, but the rainfall was still insufficient. The price of American beans fluctuated around 1000 cents.
Chen Chen
Soybean oil-the demand for oil may increase as the peak season approaches.
1. The closing price of soybean oil 2501 contract today is 7652 yuan/ton, down by 96 yuan/ton, or 1.24%.
(1) According to the data of Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crushers Association (SPPOMA), from August 1 to 31, 2024, the yield of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 0.07%, the oil yield increased by 0.03%, and the output was flat.
(2) According to AmSpec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, Malaysia’s palm oil export volume from August 1 to 31 was 1,376,412 tons, which was 11.51% lower than the 1,555,529 tons exported in the same period of last month.
On the supply side, the expectation of high yield of American beans is still strong, and the raw material side remains loose. In terms of substitutes, the current international palm oil production area inventory is not neutral, the production area enters the seasonal production reduction season from November to February, and B40 will be implemented in Indonesia at the beginning of 25 years, so palm oil prices are supported. Generally speaking, although the international palm oil price has been supported by new demand for a long time, the increase in production of new American soybeans, the normal supply of rapeseed and the weak global consumption will limit the rising pace of palm oil, and the share of alternative consumption of palm oil is expected to further decrease in the later period. On the domestic demand side, the school is about to start in the near future, and the Mid-Autumn National Day is coming. The demand side may be boosted in the short term, and the oil will continue to fluctuate widely.
Chen Chen
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